You would imagine that being a Phillies fan is about as easy right now as it has ever been. After all the Phils are 8 games ahead in the NL East with just a month remaining in the season, they feature a rotation that is the league’s best since they acquired Cliff Lee, and let’s not forget they are the defending world champions. Yet anxiety runs rampant through the hearts and minds of the Phillies faithful following. The three biggest concerns are the lack of a bench, the disastrous season of still-closer-for-now Brad Lidge (For more on Lidge and the bench, check out the 8/31 podcast), and the disappearance of top free agent acquisition Raul Ibanez.
Ibanez started the season on a monster tear and quickly won over the fans, for his efforts Raul was rewarded with his first all-star selection. On June 18th, Raul’s hot start was sidetracked by a strained groin and a trip to the DL. Raul would come off of the DL on July 10th just 4 days before the all-star game, which drew speculation that he returned earlier than necessary to ensure he could play in his first mid-summer classic. Ibanez and Coach Charlie Manuel both have said that they do not believe the injury is still an issue, but that speculation has gained steam since Ibanez has been nothing short of terrible since his return. Even more concerning is that Ibanez has traditionally been a superior player in the second half of the year.
Over the last three seasons with Seattle, Raul has hit 30 points higher, slugged 50 points higher, and he has had better HR and RBI rates in the second half. For him to be this off is especially concerning due to his track record and the fact that he has no precedence for this type of fall off. If the injury is still lingering, the Phillies need to sit Ibanez for as long as necessary to get him 100% for October. Heck, maybe the extra playing time for Stairs, Dobbs, and Bruntlett can get one of them into rhythm. If the injury truly isn’t a factor, than the team has a scarier possibility to face, maybe Ibanez is just getting old, and maybe a three-year deal was a bit much.
Ibanez was signed to replace LF Pat Burrell, and was paid $3 million more annually than Burrell got to sign with Tampa. It hardly seems worth it at this point if you compare Burrell’s 2008 with Ibanez’s 2009:
Burrell- .250 avg/ 33 HR’s/ 86 RBI’s
Ibanez- .274 avg/ 27 HR’s/ 79 RBI’s
Now Raul still has a month to play, but if he continues his slide he’ll end up around .260/30/90. So is it worth an extra $16 million in a contract to add .010 to a batting average, and to get a handful more RBI’s? I don’t think so. Remember, the Phillies have Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown lurking in the minors, and Raul is entrenched in LF for two more seasons, so there’s a chance we’ll ship out the younger and more vital Werth and/or Victorino to save money and make room for the youngsters. There’s a chance that Ibanez’s third year becomes an Adam Eaton type albatross. If after the 2010 season we lose Cliff Lee to free agency while not getting value from Ibanez’s $10 million salary, it will be a big issue to fans.
The only criticism I have of this front office is they offer big money to guys with red flags, Tom Gordon was old, Brad Lidge was too hit or miss, Adam Eaton was the league’s worst pitcher, and Raul Ibanez, like Gordon, is old. Also like Tom Gordon, Raul started out doing well for himself, but over time he seems less and less worth the investment. His struggles not only cast doubt over the World Series hopes of the 2009 Phillies, but for the next two seasons as well.
Raul has been consistently a .295/22/105 type of offensive player, and in our park and with our lineup, you should expect better. With that classic Ibanez, the Phillies are the best offensive team in the league, without him they regress to being merely very good. For now I think he needs either a Brad Lidge-type DL stint, or a Jimmy Rollins-style benching, but either way we should try something because it quite literally can’t get any worse than this.
