The 76ers suffered their worst loss of the season Wednesday night, falling to the lowly Toronto Raptors at home. If the Sixers are unable to handle the Raptors at home, then I think we can agree they are incapable of winning 30 games this year. A return to the lottery is not necessarily a bad thing, it is a chance for your team to add a piece that can get them into contention in the future. The future for this team could be a bright one if the team can makes the right front-office decisions, the problem with that notion is that there are a ton of options and enigmas associated with the current roster. What members of this rosters are building blocks, which are trade chips, which are deadwood to be excised? What can we hope for in the upcoming draft, should we jettison that pick now in an attempt to sweeten a trade proposal? The team has 14 players under contract and a top-5 lotto pick looming, lets break down how they all fit in the 76ers future plans. The Blueprint
The Keepers:
The one thing about a team that is on pace to win 16 games, is that there probably isn’t a ton of sure fire, can’t miss type guys that need to be retained in order to become a contender. By my count there are only 2.
Jrue Holiday PG: I am very high on Jrue Holiday, and while he still commits too many turnovers, he is definitely a special player and a keeper. Since a shaky start, Jrue has come on to average 16 points and 9 assists in the month of November. Jrue is very young at 20, so you can expect that he will mature both mentally and physically. The physical maturity is especially exciting, because as his 6’4” frame fills out over the next few years Jrue will become a monster of a point guard that can abuse other points with his size. Jrue could become a Deron Williams type mismatch for smaller guards if things go the right way for him. His keeper status shouldn’t be a surprise, and I wouldn’t move him unless I was getting one of the top 5 point guards in return (Rose, Rondo, Wall, Paul, and Deron.)
Evan Turner SG: The number two pick in the 2010 drat is a keeper for obvious reasons. Turner is young, big, smart, and hustles on the court. Turner needs to develop a scoring touch in order to become an all-star, but you can expect him to have a long successful NBA career. Turner leads all guards in rebounding, snatching nearly 7 per contest. That type of production on the boards is going to lead to Turner dropping triple-doubles on his opponents several times a year. Also, with Turner and Holiday the 76ers will have the biggest backcourt in basketball, which if the frontcourt is ever properly developed could help the Sixers become an elite defensive team, which all champions must be.
I hesitate to say the Sixers have to keep anybody else, not that there isn’t talent, but everybody else on the roster has questions about their skills, position, age, or money. Turner and Jrue are young, big, talented, and cheap (for now) everybody else is lacking in one of the areas if not several. The majority of the roster can be debated about, so before we get there, lets cover the guys who can go away without affecting the future.
The Deadwood:
Nothing personal here, this section is simply the guys who have limitations based on age/ money/ skill that don’t fit into any possible future plans for the Sixers.
Jason Kapono SF, Tony Battie C, Darius Songaila PF: Three vets in the final years of their contract who are either past their prime, or never really had a prime. (looking your way, Darius) These guy can be dumped and they wouldn’t be missed, although it should be noted that Kapono and Songaila make a combined $11.4 million, so although they are not a part of the future they still could be considered assets as they could end up being used to acquire talent in a trade.
Andres Nocioni SF: Andres is a good player, but he is about to turn 31 on November 30, so to count on him to contribute two or three years from now would be foolish. Andres also is a little overpaid for my tastes, so I’d prefer they trade him now rather than let him walk away after playing out his contract. I believe at the trade deadline a contender will absolutely pick up a scrappy SF who can shoot a little and defend. Also, and I’ll cover this later, Craig Brackins is a raw 6’10” SF who can shoot and was drafted in 21st overall in the 2010 draft, let’s clear out guys like Kapono and Nocioni and see what the kid has.
Elton Brand PF: I am not by any means a Brand hater, but Elton will be 34 when his contract ends in the summer of 2013, and at that point it will be near over for the former all-star. Elton is certainly overpaid, so if an opportunity to trade Brand comes along I’d jump at it. Trading Brand may seem like a long-shot now, but Brand has been giving you quality minutes, and with a lockout looming the team that acquires Brand this year may get to skip next season and then have Elton as a big ol’ expiring contract. In theory, this means Brand contributes 25 or so bench minutes to a contender this year, then becomes a trade chip again after not getting paid for 2011-12.
The Maybes:
Here is where it gets difficult, lose the wrong guys and you end up with a roster full of holes, but sign the wrong guy for too much money and you end up crippling your franchise for years. (I am extremely proud that I wrote that previous line without stopping and swearing about Billy King, Willie Green, Sam Dalembert, or Elton Brand.)
Craig Brackins SF, Jodie Meeks SG: These two are linked for obvious reasons, they both have potential to be successful rotation guys, but they both need to be given minutes to determine if they fit in with the future. Jodie was a talented scorer in college and could end up as the third guard in the Sixers rotation behind Jrue and Evan one day. Meeks’ ability to shoot from three-point range and get points in bunches will determine if he ends up as a role player or as the Sixers sixth man of the future. Brackins on the other hand is blocked by Iggy, Nocioni, and Kapono, so he won’t see minutes this season unless moves are made. Brackins is 6‘10“, which means if he ever develops into a starter it would give the Sixers another oversized player to go with their giant backcourt. He also has nice range and shoots well from outside, which will be required since he probably will get his minutes at Kapono and Nocioni’s expense and they are among our best outside shooters. Brackins needs to be more aggressive defensively to make it in the league, being tall just isn’t enough at the pro level. Still, when he was acquired from the Hornets he was regarded as the player with the highest ceiling involved in that deal.
Marreese Speights C/PF, Thaddeus Young F: This pair is linked based on the fact that both players have looked tremendous for stretches and then lost for even longer stretches. Young seems to be finding a groove lately as a reserve, and sits in the top 10 in FG percentage. Thaddeus was horrendous in 2009-10 under Eddie Jordan and appears to be on the way back to relevance under new coach Doug Collins. At just 22, it seems like there is a lot of room for Thaddeus to grow, but I can’t call him a keeper because of his financial situation. Young will be a restricted free agent after the season, and I feel like it may end up in the teams best interests to let him go. Amir Johnson, an inferior PF, just got a 5 year $35 million contract from Toronto, which kind of sets the minimum Thaddeus could get offered on the open market. Now if a team had stars to build around I’d be ok with paying Thaddeus that kind of money, but to do it and hamper your ability to fill needs seems counter productive. Let’s not forget that Thaddeus doesn’t shoot well enough to be the starting 3 next to Turner, and he doesn’t have the body to be a starting 4. You can not pay a man without a position that kind of money unless you already have stars to build around. Ultimately I need more time to determine what to do with Thaddeus, if the Sixers end up at the top of the lottery and end up drafting somebody who projects as a star, then I am more likely to keep Thad around as a backup. If they don’t get a top pick, I think you may have to let him go in an attempt to get under the cap once Brand’s deal expires in 2013 so we can land a star via free agency. I feel Speights deserves a similar holding pattern. Marreese is signed through 2012, so we have time to figure out what he can do in the league, but I can’t commit any type of big money to him unless I have my superstar-type centerpiece in place.
Spencer Hawes C: How does a 22-Year old, 7’1” center with shooting range nearly end up in the deadwood category? Hawes is big and young which I love, but he just doesn’t produce. Hawes doesn’t score a ton (just 8.6 points per game for his career), he can’t rebound (5.4 rpg), and his defense is suspect. On top of it all the Kings traded him for Sam Dalembert, which says more about his potential then anything I could write. Still, he is 7 feet tall and you can‘t teach size, or underestimate its value. There are 70 games left this year for the big guy to show something, if there’s any hope there I say keep him around with a two or three year deal and see if anything develops. Just remember to keep it cheap, we overspent on Dalembert waiting for him to develop and it never happened.
Lou Williams G: I like Lou a lot, and he is way too good and affordable to go in the deadwood category, but I’m not sure he fits as a long term option. First of all, Lou is blocked from big minutes by your two best young players in Jrue and Evan. The fact that he is undersized is ok, because he has a big PG next to him in Holiday. I just think I’d rather trade Lou to somebody that needs bench scoring and try get shooting/youth/picks. I also wouldn’t mind seeing Jodie Meeks get more minutes, but Lou’s presence blocks that from happening. The timing of Lou’s contract also doesn’t help, it expires after 2012-13, just as you expect to be turning the corner, so if Lou is going to be around when you are good then its going to be a much higher price tag, losing a lot of Williams’ appeal to me. This isn’t a knock on Lou, I just think if you can get a young big, a sniper, or a high pick for him, it is something you need to move on.
Andre Iguodala SG/SF: The sentiment seems to be that we should dump Iggy just to get his contract off the books, and I have to disagree. Trade offers like Iggy for Peja Stojakovic, or Iggy for Tayshaun Prince have been floated around, but I don’t see the logic. Why get worse now without gaining any long-term assets? I think Iggy should only be traded if it brings back a long term piece, ideally a young big man. For example, I’m ok with the Prince deal if the Pistons include Greg Monroe, the young center they drafted this spring. I’d also be thrilled if they could revive the talks of a three team deal centered on Iguodala, Carmelo, and Favors. (Especially if we could also get sharp shooter Anthony Morrow from NJ) It seems to be forgotten sometimes that Iguodala is a dynamic player miscast as the centerpiece of a team. What we really need is a superstar to lead the team, because Iguodala could absolutely be the second best player on a contender. So I say keep him and see where the draft takes you, maybe you end up with a quality big man for Iggy to partner with. Then again, maybe you end up with North Carolina’s Harrison Barnes, and Iggy really does have to go.
So what’s the blueprint?
Ultimately, the plan has to be an effort to free up money and to stockpile draft picks in hopes of landing a true #1 superstar. You do not win championships without a legitimate superstar (except Detroit) so acquiring that player is the top priority. Maybe you can draft one, Harrison Barnes has all the buzz currently among the college kids. Maybe you can shed salary and sign one from somebody else, my dream would be Dwight Howard in summer of 2012, but that’s the longest of long shots. Dwight aside, you do need a strong big man to compete in this league, and I‘d give a long look at Tyson Chandler, Kendrick Perkins and Yao Ming this off season. I would listen to offers for anybody other than Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner, I would give Hawes, Meeks, and Brackins more minutes and see what these guys can give us long term. I would refuse to give out any contract that commits big money past the expiration of Brand’s current deal, except for locking up the backcourt.
Ultimately the biggest tool needed for a Sixers resurgence is patience. We need to avoid being overaggressive in the trade market, so we can maximize the return we get on our assets. We need to see what our young players can really bring to the table, but we can‘t spend too much to keep role players or we‘ll paint ourselves into a corner. First and foremost, we have to be focused on attaining that true superstar and leader, so attaining cap space and high draft picks are definitely the priority.
